Extensive Study Shows Poker Skill Outweighs Luck

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As poker attempts to overcome the reputation of being a game of chance, a report from Cigital Inc, Rational Entertainment Enterprises Ltd (REEL) and PokerStars is helping to dispel the notion. The study, titled “Statistical Analysis of Texas Hold’Em” was authored by Paco Hope (Cigital Technical Manager), Brian Mizelle (Cigital Managing Principal), and Sean McCulloch (Ph.D. and Associate Professor at Ohio Wesleyan University) and analyzed 103 million hands played at PokerStars during December 2008.

The results of this study are important due to the on-going efforts to legalize poker in the United States. Opponents of the effort point to the fact that no player has control over the cards received, meaning that the strength of hand is left to chance; proponents argue that how a player determines to manage a hand is where the skill lies.

Cigital endeavored to analyze the data collected “without predisposition towards the final outcome,” and broke down the findings according to the following:

• Best available hands dealt to each player
• Number of times that the best hand won
• Number of times the outcome was left to chance

Cigital was able to determine that the vast majority of the time (75.7%), the hands did not go to showdown, meaning that pure luck was not a factor in the majority of cases. Of the remaining 24.3 percent that did go to a showdown, the overall best hand dealt only won 50l.3 percent of the time; this meant that approximately 12.3 percent of the best hands dealt in a sample size of 103 million actually won. The remaining 87.7 percent of the hands were won as players implemented betting strategies and observations that led the player holding the best hand to fold.

The findings of this report were not a surprise to the online poker community. Poker Players Alliance Chairman and former Senator Alfonse D’Amato said, “As a poker player I can tell you that knowing when to hold or fold is not based solely on the cards that are dealt, but a series of decisions based on skill and the actions taken by the other players. This study provides the raw data to back up the compelling arguments made by poker players around the world that it’s skill, not pure luck, that determines the outcome of the game.”

John Pappas, the Executive Director of the PPA agreed when he said, “The question of whether poker is a game of predominant skill or chance is not about the player’s ego, but the nature and legal protections of the game. In courtrooms across the country, judges and juries are finding that poker is a game of skill, not chance like lotteries or slot machines, and this study confirms that fact.”

Cigital summarized by saying, “This study concludes that the outcomes of 103 million observed games of Texas Hold’Em Poker were determined by skill more often than by chance, and by a significant margin.” These findings will undoubtedly serve as a basis for advocates and legislators to shape favorable laws allowing legalized poker in the US.